For the history of the Great Depression we have experienced the Great Depression (1929-1939), which was born in the United States and spread to Europe, the financial crisis of 2008 and the current epidemic of Ivory Coast. 19 Analysts spoke of the dire consequences of the current world economy. For the Great Depression 1930s, the great economist of the 20th century, J. Keynes, explained that it was caused by a lack of demand (Aggregate Demand and Effective Demand) for excess production. The crisis caused many companies in the United States to go bankrupt and lay off workers, whose unemployment rate in the United States was at 15 million, about 15% of the population. More than half of US banks have collapsed, with the world's leading monetary economist M. Friedman explaining that the US Monetary Authority does not supply the currency to the banking system and Adequate finances that exacerbate this crisis. The 2008 global financial crisis began with the collapse of the Lemon Brother United States Bank by the collapse of Mortgage Backed Security, where the mortgage system took over mortgages. ) Deposit the securitization that the mortgage buyer will be able to receive on a monthly mortgage, but when the home buyer is unable to pay interest and principal, the crisis can occur. For the spread of Kuwait, analysts see that the global economy has been influenced by both the global economy, supply shocks and Demand Shock (demand shocks).
For Supply Shock, the world's supply chain was cut off, first from China, where China is one of the world's major supply chains. The closure of the city, the airport closure, the port closure, and the shutdown of shipments of raw materials and components for factories worldwide. For Cambodia, due to a lack of raw materials, 200 garment factories were closed and about 100,000 workers were suspended.
For Demand Shock, because of the need to prevent the spread of one person to another, the people of the world stopped traveling or were held hostage, thus leaving the need for goods and services. All sorts of things are down. "Inflation lets us know the scale of Demand Shock and Supply Shock to the economy," said Economist. If inflation does not increase, then demand will fall.
Source: United Nation
International economists have calculated that the world economy will lose $ 1 billion for the crisis of the Kuwaiti 19 epidemic, with global growth slowing by about 1% (global economic growth of 3 to 4%). In the year of the global financial crisis, global economic growth was negative - 2%. So the world's economic situation is not as bad as in 2008, but the outbreak has not been ruled out - the global economic crisis will be worse. For the Cambodian economy, the Asian Development Bank estimates that the Cambodian economy will lose 2 to 3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) for the spread of Kov 19, costing between $ 500 and $ 800 million. Cambodia's tourism sector will be the most affected by data from the number of tourists visiting Asia in February 2020, down 50 to 90 percent over the same period last year.
The hardest hit by the Kov 19 in the global economy are transportation, transport (air transportation, waterways, waterways), tourism, hospitality, manufacturing, manufacturing, trade (export and import) and investment. The impact on tourism is that 50 million people involved in the sector, especially in Asia, will face job losses. The International Air Transport Association estimates that global airlines will lose about $ 30 billion in revenue.
The US stock market has lost more than 10%, its worst decline since the 2008 crisis. Central banks in the world have lowered their policy rates and increased government spending. The US Federal Reserve has implemented a zero interest rate policy and the US Treasury will release $ 700 billion in market capitalization. The National Bank of Cambodia lowers its Reserve Requirement Rate to 7%, bringing $ 1.8 billion into the Cambodian economy. China's central bank added $ 174 billion in financial market loans and cut its private-sector lending rate to 0.1% and 0.05%, respectively. Japan's central bank purchased $ 56 billion to $ 112 billion in market capitalization. It should be noted that the interest rates of central banks in the world are now too low to be discounted, thus the Fiscal Policy, which pays the government. Will be implemented for crisis prevention.
World oil prices have dropped sharply from $ 50 / barrel to $ 25 a barrel or $ 20 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting to reduce its production of 1.5 mbd (1 mbd equivalent to 1,000 barrels per day).
In total, according to the experience of the world's economic crisis, the world's economies are recovering. The global economy will recover once the outbreak of the disease has been completely contained. As a trend, the outbreak of polio 19 declined in China, but outstripped Europe, Italy. Normal outbreaks of the epidemic 19 are characterized by a normal distribution that will decline. So, at this time, we are only taking care of our health and not being overly scared, but we must also be prevented.
Source:
• Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
• Friedman, M. and Anna, J.S (1963), A Monetary History of the United States (1867-1960).
For Supply Shock, the world's supply chain was cut off, first from China, where China is one of the world's major supply chains. The closure of the city, the airport closure, the port closure, and the shutdown of shipments of raw materials and components for factories worldwide. For Cambodia, due to a lack of raw materials, 200 garment factories were closed and about 100,000 workers were suspended.
Source: United Nation
International economists have calculated that the world economy will lose $ 1 billion for the crisis of the Kuwaiti 19 epidemic, with global growth slowing by about 1% (global economic growth of 3 to 4%). In the year of the global financial crisis, global economic growth was negative - 2%. So the world's economic situation is not as bad as in 2008, but the outbreak has not been ruled out - the global economic crisis will be worse. For the Cambodian economy, the Asian Development Bank estimates that the Cambodian economy will lose 2 to 3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) for the spread of Kov 19, costing between $ 500 and $ 800 million. Cambodia's tourism sector will be the most affected by data from the number of tourists visiting Asia in February 2020, down 50 to 90 percent over the same period last year.
The hardest hit by the Kov 19 in the global economy are transportation, transport (air transportation, waterways, waterways), tourism, hospitality, manufacturing, manufacturing, trade (export and import) and investment. The impact on tourism is that 50 million people involved in the sector, especially in Asia, will face job losses. The International Air Transport Association estimates that global airlines will lose about $ 30 billion in revenue.
The US stock market has lost more than 10%, its worst decline since the 2008 crisis. Central banks in the world have lowered their policy rates and increased government spending. The US Federal Reserve has implemented a zero interest rate policy and the US Treasury will release $ 700 billion in market capitalization. The National Bank of Cambodia lowers its Reserve Requirement Rate to 7%, bringing $ 1.8 billion into the Cambodian economy. China's central bank added $ 174 billion in financial market loans and cut its private-sector lending rate to 0.1% and 0.05%, respectively. Japan's central bank purchased $ 56 billion to $ 112 billion in market capitalization. It should be noted that the interest rates of central banks in the world are now too low to be discounted, thus the Fiscal Policy, which pays the government. Will be implemented for crisis prevention.
World oil prices have dropped sharply from $ 50 / barrel to $ 25 a barrel or $ 20 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting to reduce its production of 1.5 mbd (1 mbd equivalent to 1,000 barrels per day).
In total, according to the experience of the world's economic crisis, the world's economies are recovering. The global economy will recover once the outbreak of the disease has been completely contained. As a trend, the outbreak of polio 19 declined in China, but outstripped Europe, Italy. Normal outbreaks of the epidemic 19 are characterized by a normal distribution that will decline. So, at this time, we are only taking care of our health and not being overly scared, but we must also be prevented.
Source:
• Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
• Friedman, M. and Anna, J.S (1963), A Monetary History of the United States (1867-1960).
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